Opinions matter

Trust is the currency of success

trust
As any economist will tell you, a dollar bill is not worth a dollar. And so the real value of that paper bill is defined by the trust we put in it. The trust that you will receive a certain (yet fluctuating; some days a dollar is worth more than others) amount of goods and services in exchange. Simple right?

So given that, trust is the most important denomination in determining the value of a product or a service. And trust builds from consistent delivery on stated promises, which - in turn - requires the unwavering commitment from people with integrity and honesty....do you feel the slide coming?

So:
1/ Why do many companies make promises they don’t keep?
I evaluate a lot of technology companies (about 60 this year alone, public and private) and most are simply lying about, or overstating (decibel marketing) the benefits of their proposition. Because the majority of potential customers and investors are ill-informed about the pros and cons of this specialized industry, technology companies can often get away with sneaky monetization strategies that take advantage of a lesser informed audience.

In Silicon Valley, “success” is often defined by how skilled you are in fooling customers and sucking up to aristocratic investors (to which few have access), rather than the authenticity of your proposition. A mediocre ecosystem is what still remains after the technology bust from 2001 in which self proclaimed “serial entrepreneurs” and investors have been able to dodge real value creation and sell out short.

Not the VC model is broken, but many of the participants are. That noise is severely eroding the trust in an inherently sound technology industry. We need to enforce more transparency and hold ourselves to higher standards to restore the integrity and trust.

2/ Why do we allow short-selling on public company stock?
First, the performance of public stock says nothing about the actual value or outlook of a company, in the same way the dollar offers no guarantee of what you get for it. Public stocks are already a lousy interpretation of the actual performance of a company, as it merely echos popular opinion (and not the company facts).

So, selling short is really a bet on performance of popular opinion and does nothing but undermine the trust in the longevity of a business and cannibalizes shareholder value. Quarterly earnings reports are an absolute joke as many companies move profits around, claim leadership in a market that is defined by themselves and reduce cost rather than improve their marketplace position in order to make quarterly earnings look good. They also force healthy companies to focus on often unpredictable economic aberrations rather than on their long term and macro-economic leadership position.

The ability to sell short creates unrest and undue fear in a system that requires the opposite. Can you imagine holding the president of the United States accountable on a quarterly basis? That would be bad for our country (in most cases).

We should implement a predetermined holding period for the sale of stock, the expiration determined by the company and regulated by the SEC (which can also prevent some nasty insider trader deals) to build back trust.

3/ Why are some allowed to resell securities?
Reselling securities (which was illegal a few years back) based on finagled credit scores are perhaps the double whammy in the erosion of trust in public companies. Company credit scores that are maintained (and marketed) by commercial companies create profit driven scores and unrealistic prices (up and down) for securities. We simply need to stop the resale of securities and regulate the process of maintaining credit scores (both business and personal) vigorously and immediately.

Regulations do not turn us into a socialistic society, but the reality is that no economy operates without rules to protect trust. Free-markets require a basic set of rules to prevent a few bad apples to create insurmountable fear for the rest of us.

For the technologists amongst us: eBay deploys no less than seven dedicated servers to detect suspicious transactions that could challenge the trust in its free-market model.

In the same way we deploy rigid traffic laws to drive a car, should we deploy rules of engagement to protect our economic serenity. As long as we don’t dictate the destination of our travels or where we place our individual economic bets, we should be just fine in our support of a blossoming capitalistic society.

Trust comes from transparency, integrity and authenticity that builds real value, not from taking advantage of the ill-informed. So, building a successful company does not start with a new product strategy but with a leader who has the drive to win that is larger than his greed. Building disruptive products that truly improve people’s lives will yield personal satisfaction and trust that will keep customers coming back for more.

Trust is the only currency that matters, so stop squandering it.

I have a dream...

While Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo show impressive results from a console perspective the game-play market today appeals to a very narrow demographic. Consoles are purchased by an age group 25-40 years old. While that demographic may be most capable of purchasing these consoles, we know from the types of games sold at roughly $50 per game that daddy plays more games than his children.
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One could also argue that the most playful age range in our lives is from age 2 to 16 years old, yet the games and platforms provided do not meet that demographic. Fewer than 40% of teenage girls play any games, feeble attempts to turn existing games pink did not yield more sales, according to an executive at Electronic Arts.

So, rather than a deep dive in the existing game-play demographic, with even better graphics of game consoles, vendors should focus on a game-play experience that meets real market demand, removes the negative and vegetative connotation of gaming and instead exercises mind and body.

Nintendo has taken the first step of targeting a new game-play demographic and quite successfully so. Robbie Bach, president at Microsoft (who I recently spoke to) described his initial XBOX objective as building the best performing gaming experience. Sorry Robbie, wrong business objective. Sony is by far the leader in console gaming and has great opportunity; to lose or bolster its lead. Execution will be key, Jack Tretton will have his hands full on that one, but Sony's powerful assets in home entertainment should help.

While the console vendors battle it out on price and performance, we are seeing new entrants prepare themselves to enter the home entertainment demographic with new "game-play" propositions. The console vendors will see competition at a different level, Apple is just one of them.

Great Technology = Great Company?

"Apple is going in a different direction than we want to go." That is the statement from a long term Apple customer (10+ years) we recently talked to. The Apple Store in Palo Alto has recently been revamped to where the iPod and its accessories seem to make up the majority of the new store layout. Media software has been tucked into a little corner in the back. Enterprise software for Small and Medium Enterprises (SME), like FileMaker Pro Server is virtually non-existent, "you can get that online" was the response from an Apple representative.

Did you know Apple is actually making more strides than ever in the enterprise business? Oracle, MySQL and a lot of other mission critical software now runs on OS X. Apple risks loosing SME foothold if it does not carefully balance advertising the iPod trojan horse with the reasons why it created the iPod, selling higher margin products. Enterprise software may not be bought in a retail store, but providing exposure and demo stations with enterprise and SME solutions are critical to changing a destructive perception. Or does Apple plan to open new Business Stores soon?

In search of the Economist VC

Pasted GraphicAs a fervent Macintosh user (I have never bought a Windows PC in my life, but been "forced" to use one), the Treo650 is about the only game in town to get your office with you on the road. The success of the Palm in 1997 started with a simple concept, provide business users with four simple buttons that gives them access to everything they need. No more, no less. Since then the Palm platform has grown in all directions, except the one I need; better support for the business user. I like access to e-mail and a decent browser, I don't like the fact that many of the phone software capabilities are not truly integrated with the original Palm software capabilities. Bluetooth performance of the Treo is below par, calls sometimes do not get sent to the Treo headset, regardless of the button you press (the headset works fine with my Powerbook and Skype). Categories don't work with the Mac. Call log can't be scrolled through using navigation keys. No keystroke consistency between applications. No global hot button consistency. Inconsistent user interface behavior between applications. Should I go on?

Opinion: I wish Apple made a phone, using a proprietary device that serves the needs of a business user very well (a key target considering its $500 price point) , instead of trying to appeal to a broad software market. In the same way the iPod did that for music players. Proprietary platforms competing with "open-source" will yield better customer value, Apple please bring it on.